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What is PolyMacro?

PolyMacro is a macro intelligence app for traders. It provides regime classification, macro factor breakdowns, divergence detection, AI-tagged news, economic calendar, and prediction market probabilities on the web and iPhone.

Can I use PolyMacro in a browser?

Yes. Open the web dashboard on desktop or mobile. Browse without signing in, or use Sign in with Apple with the same account as your iPhone to access your watchlist and Premium membership. An iPhone is not required to browse the dashboard.

What's included in the free tier?

The free tier includes: up to 20 news articles per page with a 15-minute delay, basic chart ranges (1D and 1M), today’s economic calendar, and asset prices with daily changes. Premium news filters and detailed macro analysis require a subscription.

What does Premium include?

Premium unlocks: macro regime dashboard, individual macro factor breakdowns, cross-asset divergence alerts, prediction market probabilities, full chart ranges (up to 2 years), compare overlay, advanced news filters, and per-asset context with driver analysis.

How much does Premium cost?

Available plans show the current price, billing period, and any trial eligibility before purchase. Offers may vary by platform and account. Existing Premium members can sign in with the same Apple account on web and iPhone.

How do I cancel my subscription?

Manage your subscription with the provider you purchased from. For App Store purchases, open Settings on your iPhone → your Apple account → Subscriptions → PolyMacro. For web purchases, use the management link on the Account page.

What data sources do you use?

News from 23+ curated macro RSS feeds and financial news APIs. Market data from public government and central bank sources. Economic calendar from professional financial data providers. Prediction markets from Polymarket.

Is market data real-time?

No. Market data (prices, yields, indices) refreshes hourly from public sources. This is end-of-day and intraday delayed data — not a live trading feed. PolyMacro is designed for macro analysis and positioning, not intraday trading. Premium news streams as it is processed; free news has a 15-minute delay.

What are macro regimes?

Regimes classify the current macro environment into discrete states using quantitative models applied to real market data — not opinions or forecasts. There are 9 core regimes:

• Inflation — uses TIPS real rates, breakeven inflation, and nominal yield directions to classify states like Financial Repression, Goldilocks, or Hawkish Response.
• Dollar — DXY vs 200-day moving average and 60-day momentum. Structural Bull, Structural Bear, or transitional states.
• Yield Curve — relative rate of change in US 2Y vs 10Y yields. Bull/Bear Steepening or Flattening.
• Carry — VIX level and AUD/JPY vs 200-day MA. Healthy, Deteriorating, or Crisis.
• Credit — high yield credit spread (OAS) levels. Benign, Tightening, Stress, or Crisis.
• Volatility — VIX and MOVE index thresholds. Low, Normal, Elevated, or Crisis.
• Liquidity — Fed balance sheet (WALCL) 60-day change, M2 YoY growth, and reverse repo balances. Expanding, Stable, Tightening, or Draining.
• China — USD/CNY trend, copper, and iron ore momentum. Stimulus, Stable, Tightening, or Slowdown.
• Risk Appetite — VIX term structure and the HY–IG credit differential. Risk-On, Neutral, Risk-Off, or Panic.

Regimes recompute every hour when fresh market data arrives.

What are cross-asset ratios?

Four ratios that signal macro shifts:

• Gold/Silver — below 65 = reflationary (risk-on), above 85 = fear/deflation (flight to monetary metal).
• Gold/Copper — a leading indicator for economic growth. Rising ratio signals recession risk (leads PMI by 2–3 months).
• Gold/Oil — measures stagflation dynamics. Rising ratio signals stagflation risk.
• Copper/Iron Ore — breadth of industrial metals demand. Copper outperforming signals developed-market-led growth; iron ore outperforming signals China-construction-led demand.

What do macro factors show?

Macro factors show the individual rule-based inputs behind an asset’s macro backdrop, such as rates, dollar conditions, and positioning. Supportive factors and headwinds are shown separately. They are not probabilities or validated price forecasts. A flat or missing input is shown as having no directional input; underlying series update on different schedules.

What are divergences?

Divergence detection monitors 11 cross-asset pairs for breakdowns in their historical correlation. When two assets that normally move together stretch beyond 1.5 standard deviations from their 6-month norm, it signals a potential mean-reversion opportunity or a structural shift. Severity is classified as Extreme (σ > 2.5 or duration > 14 days), Significant, or Watch — and pairs that are in line are shown too, so you can see what's building.

How do alerts work?

Alerts are a Premium feature. You can create up to 10 alerts per account. Alerts support 7 types:

• Price — fires when an asset crosses above or below a threshold (level-crossing, not continuous).
• Regime — fires when a regime transitions to a target state (e.g. credit enters "Stress").
• Divergence — fires when a cross-asset divergence is detected at a given sigma level.
• Calendar — fires on economic calendar events, optionally only on surprises.
• News — fires on market-moving news, optionally filtered by asset.
• Economic Data — fires when a new economic indicator value is released.
• Compound — combine 2–5 conditions with AND/OR logic.

Each alert has a configurable cooldown (15 min to 24 hours) and can optionally be one-shot (auto-disables after firing once). Configure alerts on web or iPhone. Triggered push notifications are delivered to your registered iPhone and deep-link into the app; browser push is not available.

What are compound alerts?

Compound alerts let you combine 2–5 conditions with AND or OR logic. For example: "Gold above $2500 AND credit regime is Adverse" fires only when both conditions are simultaneously true. Sub-conditions can mix any alert type — price, regime, divergence, calendar, news, or economic data.

How does the Compare feature work?

Compare lets you overlay multiple assets on a single chart, normalized to percentage change from a common start date. Select supported assets and indicators and choose a time range (up to 2 years). The crosshair shows all asset values at the cursor position. Compare is a Premium feature.

How often is data refreshed?

Market prices update hourly. Regimes and macro factors are recomputed hourly and after supported upstream refreshes. Premium news streams as it is processed; free news has a 15-minute delay. Calendar and economic-release detection depends on source publication, availability, and polling schedules. These are not guaranteed exchange-grade prices or release-time delivery.

How many assets are tracked?

46 instruments across indices (S&P 500, Nasdaq, DAX, Nikkei, etc.), government bonds (US 2Y–30Y, German, Japanese, Australian), commodities (gold, silver, oil, copper, iron ore), crypto (Bitcoin), forex (EUR/USD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD, USD/CNY, etc.), credit spreads (IG, HY), volatility (VIX and its term structure, MOVE), and liquidity series (Fed balance sheet, M2, reverse repo). History coverage varies by source and series, with ranges up to two years.

How is news tagged to assets?

Every article is analyzed by an AI model that identifies which tracked instruments may be affected. This powers per-asset news feeds and asset-filtered alerts. The tagging runs automatically as articles are ingested from 23+ macro news sources.

What does "market-moving" mean on a news article?

Articles likely to cause near-term price action are classified as market-moving by AI. These are highlighted with a red badge and include a "Why it matters" — a one-sentence explanation of the expected transmission mechanism to markets.

What happens to my alerts if my subscription expires?

Your alerts are paused — not deleted. They stop evaluating and no push notifications are sent. If you resubscribe, all your alerts resume automatically without any reconfiguration.

Can I restore my purchase on a new device?

Sign in with the same Apple account on web or iPhone to access your shared PolyMacro account. Use Restore Purchases in the iPhone app for an App Store purchase, or Refresh subscription on the web Account page to confirm your Premium access.

Is this financial advice?

No. PolyMacro provides data, analysis, and quantitative models for informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. See our Terms of Use for details.

How do I delete my account?

Use Delete Account in the iPhone app, or Delete my account on the web Account page. Deletion applies to your shared account. It does not cancel a subscription; manage billing with your purchase provider. You can also contact support@polymacro.app.